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  • Aug 31st, 2004
  • Comments Off on Philippine economy brisk in second quarter, seen slowing
The Philippine economy grew a stronger-than-expected 6.2 percent in the year through the second quarter of 2004, the government said on Monday, as brisk exports and consumption helped offset weaker farm output.

But quarterly growth slowed to its lowest in almost two years and analysts said the economy would probably cool in the second half as it felt the impact of record oil prices and the government's precarious fiscal position.

The 6.2 percent growth followed a 6.5 percent expansion in the year through the first quarter, and beat a median forecast of 5.65 percent in a Reuters poll of 10 economists.

From the previous three months, however, GDP grew a seasonally adjusted 0.7 percent, slowing from 2.2 percent recorded in the first quarter. GDP had previously accelerated in every quarter since early 2003.

"It's a bit stronger than I thought it would be, given that the agriculture sector came in weaker than we thought," said Song Seng Wun, regional economist at G.K. Goh Securities in Singapore.

"I would say it's probably election-related factors behind the growth and high oil prices and all that may see second-half growth much weaker than what we have seen in the first."

Gross national product, supported by remittances from millions of Filipinos overseas, grew 5.7 percent from a year ago.

Economic planning chief Romulo Neri said he expected growth to "moderate" in the second half, although the economy was on track to meet the government's forecast for GDP to be 4.9 to 5.8 higher in 2004 than in 2003, when it showed growth of 4.5 percent.

"Moving forward, the fact that the expansion in the first half was boosted by the recovery in the global economy gives us reason to be concerned and cautious in the second half with oil prices threatening to slow down growth," Neri told reporters.

He said that every 10 percent rise in oil prices lopped off around 0.2 percent from annual GDP growth.

The Philippines imports nearly all its crude oil.

While some economists expect exports to sustain growth in the second half, export growth still lags that of most neighbours due to low investment and problems stemming from a budget deficit of nearly 5 percent of GDP.

Economists say President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo will struggle to make a dent in entrenched poverty without substantially higher growth rates or an easing of the country's population growth of around 2.3 percent annually.

Arroyo, a trained economist who won a fresh six-year term in May, said last week the country was in a fiscal crisis and has called on law-makers to pass a series of new revenue-raising steps aimed at narrowing the debilitating budget gap.

Forecasts of a recurrence of the El Nino drought phenomenon later in the year have also raised the prospects of slower output in the second half.

The agriculture sector, accounting for a fifth of GDP, grew 8.2 percent in the year through the first quarter, the fastest growth in 15 years, before slowing to 4.7 percent in the year to the second quarter.

Brisk consumption related to the elections kept the economy ticking over and helped firms post solid profits for the period.

Number-one food and beverage company San Miguel Corp and fast-food chain Jollibee Foods Corp posted net profit growth of more than 30 percent in the second quarter.

Exports in the first half of the year were up 8.5 percent from a year earlier, with key electronics exports posting strong growth as the country benefited from a global recovery.

"The first half was a good start," said Ernesto Santiago, head of an industry body for semiconductors and electronics. But he said there were already signs that demand was flattening out.

Copyright Reuters, 2004


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